Since the Trump era (2017-2021), U.S.-China relations have deteriorated dramatically, marked by:
-
A trade war (tariffs on over $360 billion of Chinese goods)
-
Technology sanctions (against Huawei, SMIC, TikTok)
-
Strategic rivalry (military, diplomatic, and economic competition)
In 2024, with Trump’s potential return, China is preparing countermeasures. Here’s its game plan.
2. China’s 5-Pronged Strategy
1. Boosting Technological Self-Sufficiency
Goal: Reduce reliance on U.S. tech.
-
Massive investments in semiconductors ($230B planned by 2030)
-
Import substitution: Pushing local champions (Huawei, SMIC, Yangtze Memory)
-
Industrial espionage (FBI reports confirm China as the top IP thief)
2. Expanding Economic Alliances
Tactic: Bypass U.S. sanctions by strengthening ties elsewhere.
-
BRICS+ partnerships (Brazil, Russia, India, Iran, Egypt)
-
Deeper ASEAN integration (China’s #1 trade partner)
-
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) expansion (securing supply chains)
3. Weaponizing the Yuan & Reducing Dollar Dependence
Moves:
-
Yuan internationalization (local currency deals with Russia, Saudi Arabia)
-
Dumping U.S. Treasuries (35% reduction since 2013)
-
Promoting digital yuan (to evade SWIFT sanctions)
4. Information Warfare & Global Influence
Methods:
-
Propaganda via CGTN & Confucius Institutes (soft power)
-
Cyberattacks & disinformation (Microsoft ranks China #2 after Russia)
-
Buying influence in Europe/Africa (funding pro-Beijing media, politicians)
5. Military Buildup & Deterrence
Key Actions:
-
Rapid military modernization (defense budget up 7% in 2024)
-
Hypersonic weapons development (successfully tested)
-
Taiwan intimidation (regular military drills near the island)
3. Scenarios if Trump Returns in 2025
🔴 Scenario 1: Trade War Escalation
🔴 Scenario 2: Full Tech Decoupling
🔴 Scenario 3: Taiwan Crisis
4. Weaknesses in China’s Strategy
-
Still reliant on foreign semiconductors (despite investments)
-
Risk of diplomatic isolation if too aggressive
-
Economic fragility (20% youth unemployment, property crisis)
5. Conclusion: Who Wins This Fight?
China has key advantages:
✅ Stronger economic growth (+5% in 2024)
✅ Economic leverage (rare earths, supply chain control)
✅ Growing Global South influence
But…
❌ U.S. still leads in tech & military power
❌ The West is rallying against China (EU, Japan, Australia)
Final Verdict:
China can’t outright “win” against the U.S., but it can make the conflict so costly that Trump is forced to negotiate. Expect a prolonged economic cold war, with cycles of tension and temporary truces.
💡 For Businesses:
-
Diversify supply chains (India, Vietnam, Mexico)
-
Prepare for a bifurcated world (two tech systems, two markets)
-
Monitor sanctions to avoid getting caught in the crossfire.
China is playing the long game, while Trump prefers shock tactics. The clash will be fierce.
